Stats & Analysis

2015 Preseason Roster Analysis

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DCFC’s new approach of announcing its roster one or two players at a time makes for more excitement than a one-day info dump and has kept fans engaged over the course of several weeks, but it has also prevented me from putting together a comprehensive look at the team until now. A few more players will surely be added over the course of the next month and early on into the season, but we finally have a pretty clear picture what of the 2015 squad will look like.

Obligatory gripe: college programs are notoriously ambiguous when it comes to listing player positions. They typically shove all field players into one of three categories – F, M, or D – though even casual observers of soccer can see that individual positions are far more nuanced than that. I’ve done my best to list newcomers where I think they best fit in, based on whatever information I’ve been able to find. (Much of the credit in this department should to go to Sean/Juice/RiseAM) Hopefully I’ll have a better success rate than last year, when I projected Will Mellors-Blair at wing and Tyler Arnone and Colin McAtee as center-mids.

Finally, this piece is intended as an overview of the team as a whole, specifically its strengths, weaknesses, and depth. The season preview will give more attention to individual players and their particular qualities.

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*Newcomers listed in bold

FORWARD/STRIKER

  • Wade Allan
  • Tyler Channell
  • Charlie MacInnes
  • Will Mellors-Blair
  • James Murphy
  • Zach Myers
  • Jordan Tyler (played in 2013)
  • Brendan Woodfull

Position Overview: This position is much less of a concern than it was heading into the 2014 season when Zach Myers and Wade Allan were the only regular contributors returning. Myers and WMB are an excellent starting duo, but an impact sub/spot starter needs to emerge to fill the hole left by Shawn Claud Lawson. My money is on Charlie MacInnes, formerly of Quad Cities, but I may be overly influenced in this opinion by his laser strike from distance in February’s open tryout.

WIDE MIDFIELD/WING

  • Jeff Adkins
  • George Chomakov
  • Colin McAtee
  • Cyrus Saydee

Position Overview: While the wing position is currently lacking in numbers, there is no deficiency in talent. Cyrus Saydee has developed into the team’s heartbeat, and he still may be just entering his prime playing years. Jeff Adkins emerged as a key contributor around the middle of last season, doing things like this:

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George Chomakov has shown well in his limited playing time and could make a similar jump if given the opportunity. Colin McAtee spent much of last season at right fullback and played very well there, but I think he’s more valuable to the team as a right-mid or even possibly as a forward.

CENTER MIDFIELD

  • Latif Alashe
  • Danny Dragoi
  • Dave Edwardson
  • Connor Furgason
  • Colin Helmrich
  • Ross Hendry
  • Locky Savage
  • Kevin Taylor
  • Spencer Thompson
  • TJ VanSlooten
  • Troy Watson
  • Matt Ybarra

Position Overview: Center-mid has become a yearly logjam, with a core group of 5-6 players constantly pushing for the two available starting spots. Alashe-Edwardson may be the best combo, but there’s very little separation between them and the group of Taylor/Thompson/Savage/VanSlooten. Ross Hendry is the other Quad Cities refugee who made the team via tryout, and it will be interesting to see if he can crack this established lineup.

FULLBACK

  • Jon Evans (R/L)
  • Zeke Harris (R)
  • Alex Isaevski (L)
  • Zach Schewee (L)
  • Travon Rogers?

Position Overview: With last season’s defensive Swiss Army knife, Nick Lewin, no longer on the roster, fullback looks a little shorthanded at the moment. The left side should be just fine since both Zach Schewee and Alex Isaevski could very well step in and start at left back for any team in the Midwest Division. Zeke Harris is a quality right back, but he missed most of 2014 due to other commitments and his backup is uncertain. Colin McAtee may again be pressed into duty here by necessity.

A wild card is Travon Rogers, a Lansing high school product who hasn’t been officially announced as part of the roster, but seems to have the requisite documentation.

As a player who has yet to enter college, it will be difficult for him to make an immediate impact, but merely making the cut is a testament to the level of talent he possesses.

CENTERBACK

  • Seb Harris
  • Bennett Jull
  • Ryan Keener
  • Michael Lamb
  • Andre Morris
  • Josh Rogers

Position Overview: Last summer, Michael Lamb became the preferred starter alongside Josh Rogers, but he will face strong competition for his spot this season. Recent MSU graduate Ryan Keener (also a team captain and 2014 All-Big Ten 2nd teamer) may have the best chance to unseat him, and all three new additions bring a good bit of size with them (Keener: 6’2”, Jull and Morris: 6’3”).

GOALKEEPER

  • Bret Mollon
  • Eliott Tarney

Position Overview: Maintaining the status quo. Mollon is the clear #1 and Tarney started a few games in 2014 as his backup. One or two more keepers will surely be added for depth.

TEAM OVERVIEW

Compared to last year’s preseason roster, this one looks stronger, particularly at striker and centerback. The one soft spot appears to be right back, but Zeke Harris is a proven commodity and there is still more than a month before the first competitive game to figure out the depth situation.

Overall, the levels of talent and experience on the team make a top-4 finish in the division, and the playoff spot that comes with it, a very attainable goal. The key for City will be using those qualities to navigate a tricky unbalanced schedule and to show more consistency down the stretch than in 2014. They have the players to compete with any team they come up against, and will certainly be among the preseason favorites to win the Midwest.

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News & Notes - Stats & Analysis

Update on Keyworth

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New information on the proposed Keyworth Stadium renovation via The Hamtramck Review:

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In summary:

  • The current plan proposed by DCFC ownership includes structural improvements, replacing the current artifical turf with natural grass, construction of restroom and/or concession facilities, and putting in a practice field, possibly in the open space between Keyworth and the baseball stadium to the east.

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  • The cost of the plan is now at $3 million, triple the initial estimate that came out in October.
  • The plan is for DCFC to move in for next season.

It’s now clear that Keyworth is ownership’s plan A, and probably plan B and C. Getting an outside investor/sponsor was always going to be necessary due to the price of renovations, now with the estimate up to $3 million, it’s absolutely essential. How soon those investors get lined up may determine whether or not the goal of moving the team in for the 2016 season is realistic.

If the move to Keyworth is going to happen, it would be best to happen as soon as possible to allow for continued crowd growth. The club already stands to lose tens of thousands of dollars this year from turning people away at the gate, and the problem will only worsen if City has to continue at Cass in 2016.

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State of the Club

State of the Club 2015

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I posted last year’s SOTC in early January and planned on doing the same this year, but once the front office Q&A session (click to listen) was announced, I decided to hold off. Judging from the amount of information divulged, that turned out to be a good decision.

While any news is welcome news during the NPSL’s death march of an offseason, I was most interested in the big picture, long-term stuff: our future league situation and the search for a new stadium.

LEAGUE

Co-owner Sean Mann confirmed last month’s report that DCFC ownership made a trip out to Indianapolis last summer and met with Indy Eleven president Peter Wilt. He also mentioned that meetings took place with officials from Minnesota United and Columbus Crew.

It’s clear that City has just about outgrown the NPSL and that its owners are very interested in moving up to a professional league. What remains is to find the best, most financially-feasible situation, one that will allow the club to continue growing while maintaining its community-based/grassroots/”No One Likes Us” status. In my opinion, the NASL is the league that best meets those requirements, and I think it’s the most likely destination whenever the club eventually makes its jump.

Without even going into the political and lobbying aspect of MLS expansion, the sheer amount of money needed to join the league makes this a non-starter. As for USL Pro, there are three strikes against it as a viable option:

  1. The ever-present, kinda/sorta/not officially confirmed report that Michigan Bucks owner Dan Duggan has first dibs on a USL Pro franchise in southeastern Michigan if he chooses to pursue it.
  1. The league’s partnership with MLS. One easy way to kill City’s thriving independent status that I mentioned earlier: make it a farm club for the Crew or the Fire or Toronto.
  1. Assuming for a moment that Duggan doesn’t have exclusive rights and that City would not be required to become affiliated with an MLS club, one last question remains: At this point, is USL Pro really enough of a step up from the NPSL? I don’t think it is. That may sound a little brash but the fact is Detroit outdrew more than half of the teams in USL Pro last season while playing at a lower level. Given a larger stadium, City’s attendance would surely surpass everyone except Sacramento within a year or two.

For a while, I’ve preferred the NASL as City’s hypothetical next step, and I’ve now become even more firmly entrenched in that position. I truly believe it would give the club plenty of room to further develop its fanbase and revenue streams while staying true to its roots and allowing die-hard supporters to maintain their freedom of expression, something that should not be taken for granted.

Other benefits would include annual automatic qualification for the US Open Cup, strong local competition from two of the country’s best-supported clubs – Minnesota United and Indy Eleven – and little restriction on building a roster (free agency, no salary cap, ability to sell players without the league taking a large portion of the profits as occurs in MLS). The last point is key, as the development and sale of just a few key prospects could help offset a number of expenses, among them player salaries, increased marketing, and stadium expansion/construction.

One potential roadblock: USSF standards require each NASL franchise to have at least one owner worth $20 million who controls at least a 35% stake in the club.

STADIUM

I was initially skeptical of Keyworth Stadium as a future home, but the more I consider it, the more I’m warming to the idea. Its size – around 8000, expandable to over 9000 – is comparable to the NASL’s average stadium size of 11,500, and it would provide ample room for crowds to grow, probably the club’s most pressing issue at this time. The reported $1 million it would take to renovate the stadium is much less than the cost of new stadium construction, and the turnaround time to make the facility ready is much shorter as well.

The location isn’t perfect – we’d be losing the backdrop of the city skyline – but it seems to be the best option out there at present. If Keyworth is selling out within a few years, the increased revenue and exposure will only make the construction of a new permanent home that much more possible.

MISCELLANEOUS

Most notably, it’s been confirmed that all of City’s NPSL home games will be streamed this season. To paraphrase what was said at the Q&A: “More people watching equals greater reach. Greater reach equals more fans and more interest from potential sponsors.”

The club’s growing reputation extends to potential players as well, the prime example being the four former Quad City players who drove 14 hours from Iowa to try out for the team last week. Whether they make it or not, it shows that players from all over the Midwest want to come play in Detroit. If and when the jump to the pro level happens, I doubt there will be much difficulty in recruiting a team.

Last but not least, DCFC’s community involvement has continued unabated, from last fall’s DPS Showcase, to the club’s involvement in the launch of the Goal Detroit youth soccer league. At the very least, initiatives like these help to expose more and more young people to the game of soccer, creating potential fans and maybe even a homegrown player or two down the road. The location and level at which our hypothetical DCFC Academy graduate will play will very likely be determined sometime in the next few years. Judging by the club’s growth to this point, my money is on sooner rather than later.

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