News & Notes - Stats & Analysis

Deep Thoughts: USL Pro in Detroit

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“When you start supporting a football club, you don’t support it because of the trophies, or a player, or history, you support it because you found yourself somewhere there; found a place where you belong.”

– Dennis Bergkamp

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I planned on writing something on Dan Duggan’s USL Pro to Detroit ambitions when the news first broke, but never got around to it. In the wake of his live chat on freep.com, now seems like a good time to comment.

1. First off, this is not a done deal. The plan still has to be submitted and approved by the league. Given USL Pro’s stated expansion goals, it seems to stand a good chance, though there may be questions over the stadium issue and competition with DCFC for fans (see #2).

2. I’m obviously biased when it comes to this, but there are statistics to back me up. DCFC’s 2013 regular season average attendance of 1484 was higher than 5 USL Pro teams (out of 12), and there is every reason to believe that number will go up this season. Simply put, even if Duggan’s proposal goes off without a hitch, there is no guarantee that his new team will automatically become the top dog in town. They will be playing catch-up with a club that has already captured the hearts and minds of many of the area’s most fervent supporters.

3. Building a 5000-seat stadium in 90 days is apparently possible from an engineering standpoint. Getting through all of the red tape regarding zoning, land ownership and usage, amount of public and/or private funding, among other things, will take much longer. Having the project fast-tracked would certainly raise questions concerning Duggan’s relationship with his brother, who just so happens to be the Mayor of Detroit.

Putting those issues aside, the idea of stadium-sharing with DCFC is intriguing. Given the growth rate of support, Cass Tech may be outgrown sooner rather than later. With few obvious larger sites (Wayne State?) readily available, the only other option would be for DCFC ownership to pursue a stadium plan of their own. That should definitely be a long-term goal, but in the mean time, becoming a tenant of the USL Pro Detroit stadium seems like a decent temporary solution. And how much fun would it be to outdraw the home team in its own house?

4. Overall, I think this dynamic of competition can have positive effects. A new team will force DCFC to avoid complacency and continue innovating to maintain its success. If both teams thrived, it would show that there is enough support in Detroit to go around for each. If not, well, may the best club win.

5. Duggan seems like a nice, friendly guy, but some of his statements show how out of touch he is (emphasis mine):

I think all the fans of soccer in Detroit want professional soccer in this city and eventually want an MLS team. With the very limited schedules the Bucks and DCFC play in May-July, that is only a small sampling of soccer that the Detroit fans want.

Plenty of people want to see an MLS team in Detroit, but it’s incorrect to assume that we all do. Early on, I strongly hoped that DCFC would attract enough attention and financial backing to eventually move up to MLS. As time went on, though, I found myself caring less and less about the league they played in, and more and more about the club itself. I’m not dead-set against a future NASL or MLS move, and it would be nice if the NPSL season lasted longer, but for me, it’s more about quality over quantity. Allow myself to quote… myself:

…my foremost concern is that we maintain the enjoyment and sense of belonging we currently experience on gamedays. I’d gladly take a season of 8 home games with a raucous atmosphere over one with 20 or 30 where standing and smokebombs are prohibited.

 Finally, Duggan’s most clueless comment may be this one:

 DCFC’s success in the stands show[s] that there are lots of people that are looking for a soccer team to follow in the area.

 I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m a monogamous supporter. City is something special, not a placeholder. I have a club and I will follow it ‘til the end, wherever it may go.

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“In his life, a man can change wives, political parties or religions but he cannot change the football team he supports.”

 -Eduardo Galeano *

 *(H/T to Jaime Ventura)

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Stats & Analysis

Dry Run: 2014

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Saturday, April 19th, 2014 – Detroit City FC 1, Saginaw Valley St. 0

Friendlies are typically geared towards evaluating individual players, but it’s always good to win games and continue building of a culture of success. Although the 2014 DCFC roster is mostly set, Saturday provided a bit of new information.

  • Returns – One of DCFC’s few needs heading into the season is depth at striker. Getting Stefan St. Louis back not only bolsters the position, but gives the team another starter-quality player. Back from injury, Spencer Thompson looked his usual self, playing with intensity and challenging for every ball. Kevin Taylor returning further strengthens the absurdly deep center midfield.
  • Defensive Options – New centerback Seb Harris brings size (6’3”) and experience to the back line. He previously played two separate stints with the Michigan Bucks, spending the time in between at Northampton Town in England’s League Two. I was eager to see Moustafa Bazzi, but he played the second half at right back instead of on the wing as expected. It will be interesting to see if this a permanent move, or just a one-time experiment.
  • Goalkeeper – Playing the entire game, Jason Wise looked solid in goal. He had one bobble on a late chance but recovered well and should provide good competition for Bret Mollon. Wise was the starting GK on SVSU’s 2012-13 team that finished as D-II national runners-up.
  • MOTM – Zach Myers got the only goal, but Wade Allan had the best all-around performance. He looked active and dangerous and did well bringing teammates into the attack. He also made the best play of the game, a beautiful cross-field diagonal lob just over the head of an SVSU defender that hit a sprinting Myers in stride, resulting in an excellent chance.

DCFC’s final tryout is Saturday, May 3rd. With the roster almost complete, the emphasis will most likely be on filling a last few areas, such as 3rd GK, and uncovering one or two hidden gems that could make positive contributions.

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Other random thoughts:

  • Attendance – The official number was 1,499, triple the attendance of last year’s season opener against FC Sparta at the same location, and this was for a friendly against a local college. To put it in further perspective, 1,499 > 1,484 – DCFC’s average home attendance for the 2013 regular season. The Lesson: show up early this season, sellouts are going to happen.
  • Songs and Chants – I’m a big proponent of songs and chants that are ours, i.e. no other club uses them. The debut of Dirty Old Town went well, and its singing will only improve as more people learn the words and the tempo gets figured out. Honorable mention: the YES! chant – possibly the simplest chant ever invented, was a welcome addition.
  • Anthem – Know how the two sides of the stadium are always out of sync during the National Anthem because of that speed of sound thing? One solution:
Result: anthem

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Story of the Club

The Tipping Point

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Saturday, July 13th, 2013 – Detroit City FC 3, AFC Cleveland 1

Sunday, July 14th, 2013 – Detroit City FC 1, Erie 4

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I’ve mentioned a few times that, early on, one of my worries about Detroit City FC was that it would suffer the same fate as many lower division clubs in America: play for a year or two and then fold. This concern was justified – before DCFC came along, the area’s most recent outdoor team was Detroit Arsenal, which won the NPSL Championship in 2005 and… folded after 2006.*

Over the course of City’s first two seasons, one could sense a growing level of support with each passing game. Although this hadn’t yet translated into financial success, the wins that piled up helped to lessen my foldophobia. The events of the second weekend of July 2013 cured me for good.

*Detroit Arsenal played its games at Hurley Field in Berkley, as did FC Sparta. Both folded after brief runs. Coincidence? #CurseofHurley

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By winning the Great Lakes Midwest regular season title, DCFC earned the right to host said division’s tournament, the winner of which would move on to the NPSL’s confusing, ad hoc national playoffs.

What stood out most at the games was the atmosphere – the stadium was at near capacity on both days and the whole thing just felt… BIG. It was a spectacle.

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The semi-final, played against Cleveland before a record-crowd of 2634, went the way each of City’s home games had gone in 2013. They controlled possession, produced more chances, and eventually overwhelmed their opponent, 3-1.

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Less than 24 hours later, City suffered its only defeat of the season. They fell behind early, equalized just before the half, then fell behind again and conceded two late goals after throwing everybody forward. The loss came exactly a year to the day after their last loss in a competitive game (7/14/12, 2-1 to Cleveland).

Being unbeaten and losing a final at home was obviously disappointing, but the silver lining was that in just over two years’ time, DCFC had gone from nonexistent to a source of pride that people live and die with.

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Several of its former players have broken into MLS, and it has become arguably the NPSL’s most well-known franchise. Its supporters have gained national recognition, drawing attention to a 4th-tier league that many were unaware of just a short time ago.

Note the Northern Guard scarf on the table and the DCFC Supporters' Section in the background of the banner.
Note the Northern Guard scarf on the table and the DCFC Supporters’ Section in the background of the banner.

Most important of all, the point has been reached where, for the foreseeable future, folding is no longer a real danger. At this level, clubs and even leagues seem to come and go, and though Detroit City is not yet profitable, the support it has fostered has made it a stable, sustainable organization.

This success comes with downsides – increased scrutiny on crowd behavior at games, more and more local clubs trying to copy the City formula and gain fans for themselves, and for the first time, expectations. After such an incredible 2013 season, and with a large portion of the team returning, winning the division and making a serious push for the NPSL title is not just hoped for, but expected.

Worrying about Detroit City FC’s short term existence has been replaced by worrying about wins and losses. This shows that the club has truly arrived.

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P.S. – Brand new hype video that I can’t possibly leave out:

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Story of the Club

A Million Miles Away

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Sunday, July 7th, 2013 – Detroit City FC 2, FC Buffalo 1

If you’re part of the millennial generation, you’ve grown up in a time when sports have become almost completely commercialized. TV deals for the largest leagues have grown from millions to billions, only a handful of stadiums have escaped corporate naming (some less fortunate than others), and the phrase, “It’s a business,” is slowly replacing the phrase, “It’s a game.”

If you’re a little older, you’re probably more conscious of these changes that have taken place over the past several decades. You may remember a time when most players spent their entire careers with one team, when not every game was available on TV, and when the only logo on jerseys was that of the team.

One of the things that makes Detroit City FC unique is that it is a throwback to this earlier era. The most obvious parallel has to do with watching the games. If you want to see them play, you have to do it the way your grandparents did – show up to the stadium (and buy an affordable, reasonably-priced ticket). When City plays on the road, however, the story is a little different.

The situation is akin to an even earlier era of sports, one in which radio hadn’t yet taken off and people relied on ticker tape for baseball scores and horse race results. In our time, Twitter has become the preferred method of up-to-the-minute news, and the mysterious person(s) in charge of the official Detroit City feed holds sway over the mood of thousands of supporters, moment-by-moment. As 21st century sports fans, used to 24/7, high-definition coverage, this is intolerable. Those few hundred miles between us and our team when they are playing on the road might as well be a million. So when the regular season finale at Buffalo was streamed live online, it seemed like a gift from heaven.

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Going into the game, City needed only a draw to clinch the 2013 Rust Belt Derby and the first trophy in club history. Things started well – a goal from Jeff Adkins gave Detroit a 1-0 lead at halftime. The first half also gave us this epic photo:

Via Mlive/Buffalo.com

A decade or so from now when Josh Rogers is having his jersey retired, this picture will feature in some form or another, most likely tifo.

Buffalo drew level early in the second half and continued testing Bret Mollon, but as the minutes ticked away, the crucial one point seemed in hand. Then this happened: (I couldn’t get the specific start time to work so either fast forward to 34:55 or click this link.)

Ugo Uche’s first and only goal continued the trend that had developed over the course of the season. The year before, City’s bad habit of giving up late goals had resulted in Cleveland snatching the RBD away, and had allowed Erie to stay in the hunt and win the division on the last day.

2013 was a complete reversal:

  • June 16th @ Erie – 2-1 W, OG 90’+3
  • June 21st @ Cleveland – 3-2 W, Chong 89’
  • July 5th @ Cleveland – 1-1 D, Cameron 76’
  • July 7th @ Buffalo – 2-1 W, Uche 79’

The excellent home performances probably won the division for Detroit, but these results on the road allowed them to win it going away.

Although the game was played hundreds or thousands or millions or however many miles away Buffalo is, being able to watch live made it seem a little closer to home. In conventional soccer wisdom, a road draw is a good result. That may be, but winning is a lot more fun, especially when you get a trophy.

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Stats & Analysis

Roster Analysis: March 2014

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Previously: February Roster Analysis

Just a day before its first tryouts of 2014, Detroit City FC announced a group of signings which, when added to those of February, brings the current roster total to 32 players.

Returnees

Luke Diener (CB)
Zeke Harris (RB)
Nick Lewin (CB)
Bret Mollon (GK)
Zach Schewee (LB)
TJ VanSlooten (M)

In my February roster analysis, I said that the area of greatest need was on the back line, where Josh Rogers was the only returning starter. That statement is now outdated and irrelevant with the return of both starting fullbacks – Harris and Schewee – as well as the two centerbacks who saw the most time alongside Rogers in 2013 – Diener and Lewin.

Bret Mollon is also officially back and gives City an experienced, quality starting goalkeeper, and TJ VanSlooten gives Ben Pirmann yet another solid option in midfield.

Rookies

Tyler Arnone, University of Michigan (CM)
Moustafa Bazzi, University of Detroit/Nejmeh Sporting Club (LW/RW)
Connor Furgason, Western Michigan University (CB)
Sean Hazen, Western Michigan University (RB)
Alex Isaevski, Saginaw Valley State University (M)
Michael Lamb, Saginaw Valley State University (CB)
Colin McAtee, University of Michigan (M)
William Mellors-Blair, University of Michigan (W/F)
Craig Neal, Saginaw Valley State University (D)
Brad Ruhaak, University of Akron (D)
Zach Vasold, Saginaw Valley State University (M)

I’m not a college scout, so I can’t give a detailed breakdown of each and every one of these players. Over the course of doing a little internet detective work, however, there are three who stood out to me as having the potential to provide an immediate impact.

Although the center midfield is loaded with returnees including Latif Alashe, Dave Edwardson, Locky Savage, and Spencer Thompson, Tyler Arnone has the ability to step in and start from day one. Playing at Michigan, he was First-Team All-Big Ten in 2012 and 2013, the Big Ten Midfielder of the Year in 2013, and is currently ranked as one of the Top 100 players in the country by Top Drawer Soccer.

Michael Lamb (Saginaw Valley St.) was the 2013 GLIAC Defensive Player of the Year and although centerback is now a crowded position, he should compete for a starting role right away.

For me, the most interesting new signing is Moustafa Bazzi, a former UDM winger who plays professionally for Nejmeh Sporting Club of the Lebanese Premier League. Judging from his highlights, he will bring a new dimension to City’s attack with his flair and creativity.

The pirate theme music seems fitting, what with DCFC supporters’ affinity for skeletons and skull flags.

Overview

Detroit City has yet to hold a tryout in 2014 and the majority of the roster is already set. This speaks to the club’s growing reputation – college players want to play here, and current players don’t want to leave. Case in point, Tyler Arnone’s quote from the official DCFC release:

“When (Michigan) coach (Chaka) Daley told me that I could play for DCFC this summer I couldn’t let this opportunity go by,” Arnone said. “DCFC has such an amazing reputation in the soccer world, especially here in Michigan. For me, it’s going to be a great honor wearing the DCFC jersey and playing in the NPSL.

Even with these new signings, there are still a few areas that need to be bolstered. The most obvious one is striker, which currently consists of Zach Myers, Wade Allan, Tom Oatley, and Nick Schroeder. This is a good group to start with, but more depth is needed. It would be nice to add a pure speedster a la Kyle Bethel/Shawn Lawson, as well as an impact sub (paging Knox Cameron…).

A couple more goalkeepers, including a solid backup for Mollon, are a necessity, and it would be nice to have some more depth at left back (said every club at every level around the world).

Aside from these minor issues, this team is loaded. There is a ton of skill on the wings, the center midfield depth is obscene, and the back line is arguably the best in the NPSL. Not to make any predictions (that’s what the upcoming season preview is for), but another double-digit win season looks like the bare minimum expectation for City in 2014.

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